Unavoidable climate change will cost Africa at least $26 billion a year
(Nairobi, 27.11.2009) If warming is allowed to reach the higher 2°C limit that European countries have indicated they are prepared to accept, then the costs to Africa would double, warns the study "The Economic Cost of Climate Change in Africa" of the Pan-African Alliance for Climate Justice.
Unavoidable climate change will cost Africa at least 1.7 per cent of its GDP by 2040 - USD 26.35 billion a year at current rates - and leave millions more people suffering from hunger, diseases, floods and water shortages. The figure is an estimate of the damage that would be caused even if dramatic international action held the global temperature rise at 1.5°C, as demanded by the poorest countries, says the report, The Economic Cost of Climate Change in Africa.
This is the first time that the unavoidable cost of climate change to Africa has been calculated – other studies have examined the costs that would be imposed by temperature increases of more than 1.5 °C. The global average temperature has already risen by 0.8 °C and a further rise of 0.7 °C is inevitable. Even this relatively low level of unavoidable warming will leave an additional 12 million people hungry in Africa, damage crop yields, increase the numbers suffering Malaria and diarrhoea by up to 16 per cent and cause the number of people killed in floods to more than double, according to the study.
If warming is allowed to reach the higher 2 °C limit that European countries have indicated they are prepared to accept, then the costs to Africa would double, warns the report. The report is written by Christian Aid partner the Pan-African Alliance for Climate Justice. Without urgent action to limit climate change, the costs are likely to be significantly worse. Some scientists are now suggesting that the world is likely to face warming of more than 4 °C by 2100 or sooner.
The Economic Cost of Climate Change in Africa, says that a rise of 4 OC would be likely to cost Africa at least $155bn (at current levels) - 10 per cent of its GDP. It would increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 55 million and leave up to 600 million more people than at present affected by water shortages. The report’s statements about the possible future costs of climate change in Africa are based computer modelling which combines the economic and scientific aspects of climate change in a single analytical framework. This means that it takes account of how climatic changes affect social and economic processes. The report suggests that by 2030, Africa will need a minimum of $10 billion a year to help its people try to cope with the effects of climate change, and possibly several times this amount.
Together with faith-based development agencies in a number of other European countries, Christian Aid has launched a new climate justice campaign called Countdown to Copenhagen. www.christianaid.org.uk/copenhagen